Impact assessment of climate change on wheat crop through DSSAT model in Prayagraj region of Uttar Pradesh

Abstract

Crop production is naturally sensitive to variability in climate. Temperature and Solar radiation are two important parameters related to climate change, which affect productivity and phenology of crop. Crop Environment Resource Synthesis-Rice (CERES-wheat) model was applied to assess the impact of climate change and variability on physiology and productivity of wheat crop at Prayagraj region, Uttar Pradesh. The simulation of anthesis days, maturity days, and grain yield were carried out for the range of temperature -3 °C and +3 °C with an interval of 1 °C temperature from normal, alone or in combination with solar radiation +1 to +3 MJ m-2day-1 while keeping the other climate variables constant. Anthesis days and maturity days reduced with increasing temperature. Grain yield decreased by 6.6% concurrently with an increase in temperature by 3 °C and an increase in solar radiation (up to 3MJ m-2 day-1) in comparison with the normal conditions. The results revealed that grain yield as simulated by the CERES-Wheat model under high temperature regimes showed a gradual decrease in yield, while the lowering the temperature increased the yield. The impact maximum temperature was found to be more than that of minimum temperature.