Accuracy testing of box Jenkins models in forecasting potential evapotranspiration for Raichur district

Abstract

The prediction of evapotranspiration is necessary for a reliable management of irrigation systems. This paper is based on models used for the prediction of potential evapotranspiration in the area of Raichur District, Karnataka, India. The potential evapotranspiration time series was estimated based upon Thornthwaite model and possible Seasonal ARIMA models were developed and best fit model were selected based on Least AIC and BIC values and forecasting was done for 1-6 months lead time. The obtained results show that the ARIMA model is a very effective and reliable prediction model for short term forecasts.