Analyse the probabilities of dry spell status in different districts of Chhattisgarh State

Abstract

The initial probability of occurrence of dry spell was very high during SMW 22-23 ranging from 56-94, 75-98, 88-100 and 90-100% for 10, 20, 30 and 40 mm rainfall limits, but it was less during 24-38 SMW in most districts and tehsils. It was very low ranging from 00-38, 04-46, 10-54, 39-62% for the corresponding rainfall limits and again increased thereafter ranging as 42-100, 62-100, 71-100 and 81-100 for the corresponding rainfall limits during 39 to 52 SMW being nearly 100% for nine weeks (44-52 SMW). The conditional probability of dry spell followed by next dry spell was very high during 25-37 SMW ranging from 00-67, 00- 58, 00-57 and 10-54 for rainfall limits of 10, 20, 30 and 40 mm respectively, after the other during rest of the year might have 100% probability of occurrence 22 & 44-52, 22 & 41-52, 22 & 41-52 and 22-23 & 40-52 SMW.