Export performance of chilli and cumin from India: An empirical analysis

Abstract

Spices have been closely connected to enchanted, cultural traditions, preservation, medicine and embalming since early human history. The foremost aim of the present study was to disclose the growth and instability under area, production, yield and export volume and value of chilli and cumin in India. Composition and direction of trade of chilli and cumin from India during study period Markov was analysed using Markov Chain to find out the stable and reliable markets for Indian chilli and cumin. Projection of quantity export of chilli and cumin from India up to 2022 was calculated by using the transitional probability of retention values. Revealed Comparative advantage was calculated to know the export performance of chilli and cumin in global market. Multiple linear regression was carried out to find out the factors influencing export of chilli and cumin from India by using production, international price, and domestic price as independent variables. From the study it had revealed that chilli area under cultivation showed negative growth. Whereas cumin showed positive and significant growth in area, production and productivity at national level. Export quantity and value of chilli and cumin had shown significant positive growth. Vietnam was found to be the most reliable and stable market for Indian chilli and cumin export during study period (2005-06 to 2017-18). Export projections of chilli and cumin had shown positive trend. Chilli and cumin enjoyed the positive and increasing trend of comparative advantage in international market in exports. International price, domestic price and production of chilli and cumin had positive influence on export of chilli and cumin from India.