Simulating the impact of climate change on rice yield using DSSAT model

Abstract

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the second most important food grain after wheat in World. A decline in productivity of rice in recent years has been ascribed to decrease in soil organic carbon and reserve of nutrients, non-uniform distribution of rainfall, and increase in temperature and carbon dioxide because of climate change. To assess the impact of climate change on rice yield, crop simulation DSSAT model CERES – rice was calibrated and well evaluated for short and medium duration varieties through field experimental data at Prayagraj, India. Using past 8 years (2012 – 2019) weather data, the CERES-Rice model predicted higher yield variability of the medium duration variety (130 days) “NDR – 359” as compared to the short duration (90 days) variety “NDR – 97” under irrigated condition of Prayagraj, India. However NDR – 359 simulated the higher mean yield. With increase in atmospheric CO2 level by 150 ppm, the grain yield of NDR – 359 and NDR – 97 was increased by 7.16% and 5.86% respectively under irrigated condition. Increase in average air temperature by 3ºC resulted a decline in yield of short duration variety but an increase in yield of the medium duration variety. The medium duration variety showed better adaptability to climate change than the short duration varieties under optimum input management condition.