Forecasting of area, production and yield of jute crop in India using ARIMA model

Abstract

The paper describes an empirical study on the trend of jute production, area & yield in India for the period starting from 1950 to 2017. As West Bengal contributes 80% of total jute production, so West Bengal is also taken for the study. For trend estimation Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used. Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). For forecasting area, production and Yield ARIMA (2, 1, 1), (0, 1, 1) and (1, 1, 1) model for India and ARIMA (2, 1, 1), (1, 1, 2) & (2, 1, 1) for West Bengal were used respectively to forecast five leading years. The results also shows area forecast for the year 2022 to be about 778.4224 thousand hectare, production 10982.75 (In ' 000 Bales of 180 Kgs. Each) in India. Forecasted values of area to be 581.5554 thousand hectare and for production 8710.528(In ' 000 Bales of 180 Kgs. Each) in West Bengal.