Gap analysis evaluation of Nigeria’s fish demand and production: Empirical evidences for investment in and policy development for offshore mariculture practices

Abstract

Fisheries remain one of the greatest natural resources endowments of the marine environment that form the sources of seafood and revenue to coastal states. Thus the blue prints for the development and harnessing of the blue economy of most coastal states has always considered fishery management for the sustainable production of fish and seafood to adequately satisfy demand as vital for ensuring food security and earning foreign exchange via international trade in fishery resources. The study evaluated Nigeria’s fish demand and production with a view to providing empirical evidence for or against the development of a national fishery policy for investment in and practice of offshore mariculture (practice of aquaculture at sea, ocean and coastal waters rather than on land only, as currently being done in Nigeria) in Nigeria. The study used gap analysis approach, augmented with ratio analysis to estimate the gap between fish demand and production in Nigeria using a 10 year (2008 – 2017) data obtained from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). The result of the study shows that the average deficit in fish supply from local production over the period is 292348.6tons per annum while the average yearly demand is 1237000.0tons; implying that all the aquaculture and wide fishery output in Nigeria; failed to satisfy about 24% of the aggregate fish demand within the economy. It equally shows a Capture to fish-demand ratio is 0.56; implying that the wide capture sub-sector current supplies about 56% of local fish demand while the aquaculture sub-sector supplies only 20% of aggregate domestic fish demand. The result also indicates a gap of 277,041,960,000 naira between fish import expenditure and export earnings which represent excess fiscal resources spent in fish import over export per year. It was recommended that the government should develop a blue print for investing in and developing offshore mariculture in Nigeria.