Stochastic models for reservoir inflow simulation

Abstract

Forecasting of inflow to a new reservoir and modelling of the historical behaviour of an existing reservoir can be accomplished through simulation models. First order stationary Markov model assuming stationary mean, standard deviation and lag1 correlation for the historical and generated data would result in a perfect simulation for annual stream flows and reservoir inflows. Seasonal models can be introduced in which the seasons can be either months, or any intra year period variation and here the inherent periodicity would introduce non stationarity in the data. First order Markov model addressing the non stationarity is a better alternative recommended in this situation. Simulations for Karappara (100 27’ 25”N 760 38’ 51” E) Stream flow and Idamalayar (100 13’ 18” N 760 42’ 21” E) Reservoir Inflow belonging to Kerala state have been realised with respect to both stationary and non-stationary data.