editorial Open AccessTop 1% cited
The Extent of Transmission of Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, 2020
Journal of Clinical Medicine · 2020 · Vol. 9(2) · pp. 330–330
Hiroshi Nishiura✉(Hokkaido University)Sung-mok Jung(Hokkaido University)Natalie M. Linton(Hokkaido University)Ryo Kinoshita(Hokkaido University)Yichi Yang(Hokkaido University)Katsuma Hayashi(Hokkaido University)T. Kobayashi(Hokkaido University)Baoyin Yuan(Hokkaido University)Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov(Hokkaido University)
Abstract
A cluster of pneumonia cases linked to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was reported by China in late December 2019. Reported case incidence has now reached the hundreds, but this is likely an underestimate. As of 24 January 2020, with reports of thirteen exportation events, we estimate the cumulative incidence in China at 5502 cases (95% confidence interval: 3027, 9057). The most plausible number of infections is in the order of thousands, rather than hundreds, and there is a strong indication that untraced exposures other than the one in the epidemiologically linked seafood market in Wuhan have occurred.
COVID-19 epidemiological studiesCOVID-19 Pandemic ImpactsSARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 ResearchMedicineIncidence (geometry)Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Transmission (telecommunications)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Confidence intervalChinaCoronavirus2019-20 coronavirus outbreakPneumonia
Funding
- Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development
- Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
- Inamori Foundation
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
- Japan Science and Technology Agency
- Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology
Citations
508
FWCI
17.03
field-weighted impact
References
7
Percentile
99%
vs. same field & year
Citations per year
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References
Origin and evolution of pathogenic coronaviruses
Nature Reviews Microbiology · 2018 · 5,807 citations
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