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From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance
The Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2003 · Vol. 17(1) · pp. 83–104
Robert J. Shiller✉(National Bureau of Economic Research)
Abstract
The efficient markets theory reached the height of its dominance in academic circles around the 1970s. Faith in this theory was eroded by a succession of discoveries of anomalies, many in the 1980s, and of evidence of excess volatility of returns. Finance literature in this decade and after suggests a more nuanced view of the value of the efficient markets theory, and, starting in the 1990s, a blossoming of research on behavioral finance. Some important developments since 1990 include feedback theories, models of the interaction of smart money with ordinary investors, and evidence on obstacles to smart money.
Financial Markets and Investment StrategiesComplex Systems and Time Series AnalysisEconomic theories and modelsBehavioral economicsEconomicsDominance (genetics)Volatility (finance)Financial economicsFaithEfficient-market hypothesisValue (mathematics)Positive economicsNeoclassical economics
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Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance1The comments of Brad Barber, David Hirshleifer, S.P. Kothari, Owen Lamont, Mark Mitchell, Hersh Shefrin, Robert Shiller, Rex Sinquefield, Richard Thaler, Theo Vermaelen, Robert Vishny, Ivo Welch, and a referee have been helpful. Kenneth French and Jay Ritter get special thanks.1
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