SARIMA models forecasting of weather parameters for Thrissur district

Abstract

A novel attempt has been made to construct prediction models for weather parameters of Thrissur District in Kerala using SARIMA (Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) models. Assessment of trend and identification of the best SARIMA model for forecasting weather in Thrissur District were the major objectives of the study. Excellent parsimonious forecasting equations could be generated using the SARIMA technique for the parameters studied. Validity of the models was tested using standard statistical techniques. The forecasting power of SARIMA model was used to forecast six leading years and the forecasted values are recorded. The results showed good agreement between actual and predicted values.