Application of time series analysis on the forecasting of the outbreak of malaria epidemic in Nigeria

Abstract

This study examined the application of time series analysis in forecasting of the monthly outbreak of malaria epidemic in Nigeria. The secondary data was obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The model; ARIMA (1,0,1) was used to forecast the monthly reported cases of malaria with 16 months lead, which shows a gradual increase and decrease in the series. It was recommended among others that the Government should ensure the provision of insecticide-treated nets, insecticides and anti-malaria drugs in the rural areas in Nigeria.