Forecasting of food grain production in Odisha by fitting ARIMA model

Abstract

Agricultural scenario of a state is reflected by the analysis of its food grain production status. In odisha, food grains share a major portion of the total cropped area in kharif season. and rabi. In kharif season, cereals form the major share of food whereas, in rabi the major share is by pulses. A time series modeling approach (Box-Jenkins’ ARIMA model) has been used in this study to forecast food grain production in Odisha. The order of the best ARIMA model was found to be 2,1,0 (without constant) for kharif food grain production and 1,1,0 (without constant) and for rabi food grain production. The selected best fit models are also validated by using the data which were held up and not used for model building. Further, efforts were made to forecast, as accurate as possible, the future food grain production for kharif and rabi season for a period upto three years by using the best fit model. The forecast results have shown that the food grain production will show a positive growth from 2014-15 to 2016-17 for both kharif and rabi season.