Prediction models for Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae) based on weather parameters in an organic mango orchard

Abstract

The present study was aimed to determine the effect of abiotic factors on population of B. dorsalis in an organic mango orchard and to develop weather forecast models at ICAR- Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Bangalore, Karnataka in an organic mango orchard during Jan 2014- Dec 2015. Correlation studies showed that there was a significant positive correlation between maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed and rainfall. The linear regression explained the highest variability R2=0.74 with wind speed and multiple regression analysis with all the significant weather variables could explain the variability to an extent of 83% during the fruiting phase of mango. Thus, the simple linear regression model derived from windspeed can be considered as a best single predictor for forecasting the changes in population of B. dorsalis that can be used in the management decisions.