Time‐predictable recurrence model for large earthquakes

Abstract

We present historical and geomorphological evidence of a regularity in earthquake recurrence at three different sites of plate convergence around the Japan arcs. The regularity shows that the larger an earthquake is, the longer is the following quiet period. In other words, the time interval between two successive large earthquakes is approximately proportional to the amount of coseismic displacement of the preceding earthquake and not of the following earthquake. The regularity enables us, in principle, to predict the approximate occurrence time of earthquakes. The data set includes 1) a historical document describing repeated measurements of water depth at Murotsu near the focal region of Nankaido earthquakes, 2) precise levelling and 14 C dating of Holocene uplifted terraces in the southern Boso peninsula facing the Sagami trough, and 3) similar geomorphological data on exposed Holocene coral reefs in Kikai Island along the Ryukyu arc.