Indices of El Niño Evolution

Abstract

To characterize the nature of El Nin o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in different regions of the Pacific have been used. An optimal characterization of both the distinct character and the evolution of each El Nin o or La Nin a event is suggested that requires at least two indices: (i) SST anomalies in the Nin o-3.4 region (referred to as N3.4), and (ii) a new index termed here the Trans-Nin o Index (TNI), which is given by the difference in normalized anomalies of SST between Nin o-12 and Nin o-4 regions. The first index can be thought of as the mean SST throughout the equatorial Pacific east of the date line and the second index is the gradient in SST across the same region. Consequently, they are approximately orthogonal. TNI leads N3.4 by 3 to 12 months prior to the climate shift in 1976/77 and also follows N3.4 but with opposite sign 3 to 12 months later. However, after 1976/77, the sign of the TNI leads and lags are reversed.